Plan Continuation Bias: When “Staying the Course” Becomes Dangerous

We’ve all been there. You’re driving to a destination using your usual route when a traffic alert pops up on your phone. There’s major congestion ahead, but you think, “I’ll stick with this road anyway—it’s the one I know best.” Twenty minutes later, you’re sitting in bumper-to-bumper traffic, watching cars zip by on the alternate route you could have taken.

What just happened? You experienced plan continuation bias—a cognitive trap that affects everyone from everyday commuters to airline pilots, business leaders, and project managers.

What Is Plan Continuation Bias?

Plan continuation bias (sometimes called “get-there-itis”) is our tendency to continue with an original plan despite changing conditions that make the plan no longer safe, viable, or beneficial. It’s our natural reluctance to revise or abandon a course of action once we’ve committed to it, even when warning signs suggest we should.

This bias is particularly dangerous because it operates below our conscious awareness. We don’t actively decide to ignore new information—we simply fail to give it appropriate weight against our pre-existing plan.

The Psychology Behind the Bias

Several psychological factors contribute to plan continuation bias:

1. Confirmation bias: We notice and prioritize information that confirms our existing plan while downplaying contradictory evidence.
2. Loss aversion: Changing plans often involves accepting immediate losses (of time, money, or effort already invested), which we’re naturally wired to avoid.
3. Goal fixation: When we become hyper-focused on reaching a goal, we may ignore the growing costs or risks of continuing.
4. Social pressure: No one wants to be seen as indecisive or as someone who “gives up” easily.
5. Mental workload: Creating a new plan requires cognitive effort, which our brains naturally try to conserve.

Real-World Examples

Aviation Disasters

The concept of plan continuation bias was first extensively studied in aviation, where it contributes to numerous accidents. For example Air India Express Flight 812 crash On 22 May 2010, the Boeing 737-800 passenger jet operating the flight crashed on landing at Mangalore. The crash exemplifies this bias in action. Despite flying into known trouble and deviating many guidelines, the pilots continued their planned route rather than diverting, ultimately encountering shorter runway that led to the crash and loss of almost of all 158!souls on plane. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_India_Express_Flight_812

Business Failures

Kodak’s infamous decline illustrates plan continuation bias in business. Despite developing the first digital camera in 1975, Kodak continued focusing on its traditional film business. As digital photography revolutionized the market, Kodak stubbornly stuck to its original business model until it was too late.

Project Management

Let’s take an example, Kingfisher Airlines’ Aircraft Manufacturing Partnership (2005-2012):

• Vijay Mallya pursued aggressive expansion with aircraft manufacturing partnerships despite clear financial warning signs
• The company continued ordering new aircraft and expanding routes when their finances were deteriorating
• Leadership ignored maintenance issues and operational inefficiencies
• Eventually collapsed with approximately ₹7,000 crore in debt

How to Combat Plan Continuation Bias

1. Build decision gates into your plans: Establish predefined points where you’ll stop and reassess whether continuing makes sense.
2. Assign a devil’s advocate: Designate someone whose job is to question the plan and highlight potential problems.
3. Create psychological safety: Foster an environment where changing direction isn’t seen as failure but as smart adaptation.
4. Develop and practice contingency plans: Having alternative plans ready makes it easier to switch when necessary.
5. Monitor for warning signs: Establish clear metrics that would indicate when a plan needs reconsideration.
6. Take a step back: Periodically distance yourself from day-to-day execution to evaluate the big picture objectively.

The Adaptability Advantage

While persistence is often celebrated as a virtue, knowing when to change course is equally important. The most successful individuals and organizations aren’t those who never fail, but those who recognize failure quickly and adapt accordingly.

Remember: The most dangerous words in business (and life) might just be “we’ve always done it this way” or “we’ve come too far to turn back now.”

By understanding plan continuation bias and actively working to counteract it, we can make better decisions, avoid unnecessary risks, and ultimately achieve better outcomes—even if the path to those outcomes looks different than we initially imagined.

Have you ever found yourself stuck in a failing plan? What strategies helped you recognize when it was time to change course? Share your experiences in the comments below.