AI Generated, Prompt Engineering by Sumit W

Think Differently and Think Again

Management attention is the ultimate constraint!

Eliyahu M. Goldratt

When it comes to new ideas and innovations from the team, the ultimate bottleneck is management. Their time and interest define whether the ideas are going to see the light of day! And as usual, words drown in various biases, and a billion-dollar idea will be killed without even realising its potential, just because the manager could not agree or find time to “rethink” his objections. Clearly, it’s not a new issue.

When iPhone peaches to Steve Jobs, he ridiculed it initially, believing that a mobile phone should focus on essential functions rather than extravagant features. It was he who was thinking differently while reviving Apple and avoiding bankruptcy, ultimately leading to the creation of the revolutionary iPod, which transformed how the world consumed music. However, it was his ingenious team, fueled by innovation and creativity, who dared to think again and found a compelling use case for the iPod as a phone. They envisioned a seamless integration of music, communication, and internet capabilities within a single device, thus paving the way for what would become the iPhone and revolutionizing the entire smartphone industry in the process. Through their collaborative efforts, they not only changed the way individuals interacted with technology but also set a new standard for what a mobile device could achieve in our daily lives.

For sure, each successful enterprise has an innovative founder, however it’s the team who make the enterprise succeed again and again and give the edge.

The book “Think Again” by Adam Grant, discusses the importance of rethinking and unlearning in a changing world. It emphasizes the value of being open to changing one’s mind and embracing doubt. Confidence combined with humility leads to better rethinking and learning. Challenging our own beliefs and seeking new perspectives can improve decision-making. Encouraging others to question their assumptions can lead to more open-minded conversations.

🦾 Modes of Thinking

It’s important to recognise the mode that we operate in while discussing an idea with someone. Especially when the ideas is not belongs to us, but we are the decision makers. The three modes quoted in the books are preachers, prosecutors, and politicians.

In each of these modes, we take on a particular identity and use a distinct set of tools. We go into preacher mode when our sacred beliefs are in jeopardy: we deliver sermons to protect and promote our ideals. We enter prosecutor mode when we recognize flaws in other people’s reasoning: we marshal arguments to prove them wrong and win our case. We shift into politician mode when we’re seeking to win over an audience: we campaign and lobby for the approval of our constituents. The risk is that we become so wrapped up in preaching that we’re right, prosecuting others who are wrong, and politicking for support that we don’t bother to rethink our own views.

🔬 One more mode “Scientists” mode

The mode which emphasis on questions everything is called as Scientist mode. For sure, it’s a methodology which researchers are trained to use, it’s not limited to white lab coats. This mode comes to action when we are in search of truth. The way to operate this mode is build the hypothesis, which you like to make it happen, and test this hypothesis by discovering knowledge.

The biggest hurdle of using Scientist mode is “ego”, and “we have done everything in past” a status quo bias.

✋Status quo bias

This cognitive bias leads people to prefer maintaining current practices or traditional methods, often resisting changes or new approaches. It’s driven by a comfort with the familiar and a perception that past methods are inherently safer or more effective.

In organizational settings, this bias can hinder innovation, as it causes people to dismiss new ideas by overvaluing past successes. Another related concept is sunk cost fallacy, where past investments in a particular approach make people reluctant to abandon it, even if it’s no longer the best option.

⁉️ How to “Think Again”?

It’s all really come down to acknowledging that we are prone to these biases, and overcoming this will truly bring innovations to organisation and will sustain growth long term. Few practices mentioned below, which I believed from my experience are really helpful. Also few of them are also aligned to over all theme of “Think Again” practice mentioned by Adam Grant.

1. Embrace a Scientist Mindset: Approach ideas like a scientist rather than a preacher, prosecutor, or politician. This involves forming hypotheses, experimenting, and being willing to change beliefs based on new evidence, which can help challenge assumptions about past practices.

2. Rethink Familiar Practices: Grant suggests actively questioning the effectiveness of familiar practices and regularly asking, “What if we tried a different approach?” This helps counter the comfort of “we’ve always done it this way.”

3. Encourage Intellectual Humility: Recognize that being wrong is a natural part of learning. Leaders can set an example by admitting mistakes and valuing learning over being right, which encourages others to embrace new ideas and reduce reliance on the past.

4. Seek Diverse Perspectives: Invite input from people outside the usual circle who may offer fresh viewpoints. This approach helps expose blind spots and reduces the tendency to default to what’s been done before.

5. Focus on Small Wins: Trying small, low-stakes experiments with new ideas can make people more open to change. These incremental steps help build confidence in different approaches without overwhelming the organization.

🔖 Summary

The approach of “Think again” and “Think Different” is a practice which make us pause before getting overwhelmed by the newness of the idea.

A pause and change in perception will bring the focus back to this question of how to think differently and think again, for the concept which we may think not worth of our time.

Management being ultimate gate keeper of the funds and resources, are the responsible ones who should practice “Think Again” and allow team to “Think differently”.

I hope this small blog will bring some insights and will help you “Think Differently”

Good Execution – Strategy – a new possibility


The three processes—people, strategy, and operations— remain the building blocks and heart of good execution. But as the economic, political, and business environments change, the ways in which they are carried out also change.”

Larry Bossidy, Ram Charan, Charles Burck

Change vs. Inertia

Change or not change, that’s the constant tug of war an organization faces. Change being only constant, and our love of inertia (why to change), leads to this war within each organization. A successful company becomes successful, by knowing customer better than its competition, but then same company faces competition to safeguard its turf due to its ‘belief’ that they know customer! Customers are more prone to change, and they have fewer option to avoid it, and the organization which constantly tap such changes in customer’s expectations make it sustain and bloom constantly!

Recently I read book “Execution: The Discipline of Getting Things Done”

Execution: The Discipline of Getting Things Done by Larry Bossidy and Ram Charan emphasizes the importance of executing strategies effectively to drive success in any organization. The book argues that many companies fail, not due to a lack of vision, but due to a failure in execution. It breaks down execution into three main processes: people, strategy, and operations. The authors highlight the role of strong leadership in establishing a culture of accountability, aligning the right people with the right tasks, and maintaining a rigorous focus on the practical steps needed to reach goals. The book provides actionable advice for leaders to ensure that plans turn into results by consistently focusing on follow-through and engagement at all levels of the organization.

⁉️ The Question

With such challenges, the book help answer following three questions, these aspects not only enable a faster change but also help us being more dynamic and adaptive to constantly changing environment.

  1. How can executives effectively bridge the gap between high-level strategic decisions and the day-to-day choices made by employees at the front lines of the organization?
  2. In what ways can traditional strategic planning methods be reimagined to foster more creativity and innovation within a business?
  3. What role does fear of change play in preventing organizations from adopting new strategies, and how can this fear be mitigated to encourage more effective decision-making?

The thing is not always what we assume it is. Often, we get in our own way when solving problems with a new way of thinking, because we’re afraid it won’t yield better results than the tried-and-true methods of yesterday! We need a framework for thinking through the most common problems with a new lens on what might work to bring about the most effective, long-term solution

👂Where is the competition, who is listening?

In business, where competition is between products rather than companies, the line of sight between a CEO’s decisions and whether a customer will buy a product at any given time is much less clear. The individual outcomes of customers’ decisions are far from easy for executives seating in head office, removed from the front line, to predict and control.

If the judge of the value of any product or service is the customer who chooses to buy, not the provider, then it is the provider’s (Company’s) people at the front line, in front of the customer, who are best placed to determine what the customer values. It is up to the rest of the company to help the people in the front lines, where the revenues come in, to satisfy those customer needs. The lower level, in effect, is the customer of the level above it. And like a customer, it should expect to get more value from those services than it pays to get them.

Companies should build Cumulative advantage as the layer on its initial competitive advantage by making its product or service an ever more instinctively comfortable choice for the customer. Focus on helping customer make easy choice over making the product a habit.

🎲 Customers are beyond Rationality

The common belief about competitive advantage is that successful companies choose a position, focus on certain consumers, and design activities to serve them better. The aim is to get customers to buy again by matching the value offered to their needs. By creating unique and personalized experiences, the company can maintain a competitive edge. This way of thinking assumes that consumers make careful and logical decisions. Although emotions may play a role in buying, many times these decisions come from a conscious thought process. A good strategy understands and responds to this thought process. However, research in behavioural psychology suggests that buying decisions aren’t always made consciously. Our brains work more like machines that fill in gaps: they take incomplete information and quickly complete it using past experiences. This fast thinking, known as intuition, includes thoughts and feelings that come to mind quickly and strongly influence our actions. It’s not just what we remember that shapes our quick judgments but also how easy and fast we can remember it. When we decide based on what “feels right,” it usually means our thinking process was smooth and effortless. Hence, one reason people often choose the leading product is simply that it is the easiest option available, as it stands out in the shopping environment.

😶 Customer Loyalty – Never take it for granted!

If consumers are slaves of habit, it’s hard to argue that they are “loyal” customers in the sense that they consciously attach themselves to a brand on the assumption that it meets rational or emotional needs. In fact, customers are much more fickle than many marketers assume: often the brands that are believed to depend on loyal customers achieve the lowest loyalty scores. So why do fringe brands like local competition survive? The answer, perhaps perversely, is that with big-brand loyalty rates at 50 percent, just enough customers will buy small brands from time to time to keep the latter in business. But the small brands can’t overcome the familiarity barrier, and although entirely new brands do enter categories and become leaders, it is extremely rare for an established fringe brand to successfully take on an established leader.

🫀Strategy not for faint hearted

Strategic planning often gets bogged down in numbers and analysis. This creates a sense of scientific rigor, but it can also lead to a lack of creativity. Many managers find that the annual planning process is time-consuming and doesn’t produce truly innovative strategies.

To break this pattern, we need to shift our thinking. As the saying goes, “In strategy, what counts is what would have to be true—not what is true.” Developing a winning strategy is like creating and testing scientific hypotheses. It involves imagining a new reality where our ideas would work and then figuring out what needs to change to make that happen. This creative process is just as important as the analytical one.

Few steps one can follow for such strategy building: A Possibility Based Approach

  1. Move from Issue to Choice: Conventional strategy-making tends to focus on problems or issues, such as declining profits or market share. As long as this is the case, the organization will fall into the trap of investigating data related to the issues rather than exploring and testing possible solutions.
  2. Generate Strategic Possibilities: Constructing strategic possibilities, especially ones that are genuinely new, is the ultimate creative act in business. To generate such creative options, you need a clear idea of what constitutes a possibility. You also need an imaginative yet grounded team and a robust process for managing debate.
  3. Specify the Conditions for Success: The purpose of this step is to specify what must be true for each possibility to be a terrific choice. Note that this step is not intended for arguing about what is true. It is not intended to explore or assess the soundness of the logic behind the various possibilities or to consider data that may or may not support the logic—that comes later.
  4. Identify the Barriers to Choice: Now it’s time to cast a critical eye on the conditions. The task is to assess which ones you believe are least likely to hold true. They will define the barriers to choosing that possibility.
  5. Design Tests for the Barrier Conditions : Once you’ve identified and ordered the key barrier conditions, the group must test each one to see whether it holds true. The test might involve surveying a thousand customers or speaking to a single supplier. It might entail crunching thousands of numbers or avoiding any quantifiers at all. The only requirement is that the entire group believe that the test is valid and can form the basis for rejecting the possibility in question or generating commitment to it.
  6. Conduct the Tests: Typically, at this step you bring in people from outside the strategy team—consultants or experts in relevant functional or geographic units who can help fine-tune and conduct the tests you have prioritized.
  7. Make the Choice: In traditional strategy-making, finally choosing a strategy can be difficult and acrimonious. The decision makers usually go off-site and try to frame their binders of much-discussed market research as strategic options. With the stakes high and the logic for each option never clearly articulated, such meetings often end up as negotiations between powerful executives with strong preconceptions. And once the meetings are concluded, those who are skeptical of the decision begin to undermine it. With the possibilities-based approach, the choice-making step becomes simple, even anticlimactic. The group needs only to review the analytical test results and choose the possibility that faces the fewest serious barriers.

Summary 🔖

It’s a new model, introduced in the ongoing dialogue about the existing frameworks we rely upon to enhance the effectiveness of our strategies. The essence of this discourse revolves around a fundamental truth: you are the master of your models. It’s vital to understand that if you find yourself constantly attributing failures to your model while simultaneously striving to harness its potential, then, inadvertently, you have granted it a monopoly over your thought processes. This situation creates a paradox where the model, rather than serving you, becomes an oppressive force, dictating your decisions and stifling creativity.

Imagine this scenario: you enter into an agreement with a model, believing it has the keys to success. You attempt to optimize your connection with it, tweaking here and there, but the results remain disappointing. Each setback chips away at your confidence, leading to a self-blame spiral. You question your abilities, thinking you simply have not mastered the model’s intricacies. This is a dangerous mindset; it breeds dependency and diminishes your agency.

In contrast, if you adopt an empowered position and hold your model accountable for its outputs, you take the reins of your intellectual journey. You evaluate its effectiveness in delivering the promised results consistently. When you find it lacking, instead of forcing it to work for you, you make the courageous decision to discard it and seek out better alternatives. It’s an exercise in discernment and strategic thinking—embracing flexibility and adaptability rather than a rigid adherence to a failing system. If a model does not meet your needs or align with your goals, there’s no shame in letting it go. After all, your primary objective is to cultivate strategies that genuinely foster growth and drive success, not to be shackled by ineffective tools. Embrace the autonomy of ownership over your models, ensuring they serve your aspirations effectively rather than the other way around.

The Art of Possibility: Transforming Professional and Personal Life

In the realm of possibility, we gain our knowledge by invention 

“The Art of Possibility” by Rosamund Stone Zander explores the idea of embracing a universe of potential beyond traditional limits. It encourages readers to shift their mindset from scarcity to abundance, fostering creativity and connection. The book shares personal stories and insights from various fields like art and music. It emphasizes the power of collaboration and the impact of each individual’s actions. Overall, it inspires a transformative approach to life and relationships.

🛣️Approach if this book

The book helps answer few thought-provoking questions,

  1. How can the practices of acceptance and harmony, transform our approach to challenges in a competitive culture?
  2. In what ways can the experiences shared in the document illustrate the idea that leadership is a gift rather than a responsibility?
  3. How does the concept of viewing mistakes as opportunities for growth reshape our understanding of success and creativity?

📌Book Summary – Mind map

The books cover 12 Practices to make new possibilities happen, to avoid routine and make us more innovative and productive. Those practices are summarized in mind map above. A small summary below

Practice 1: Its all Invented : Seeing with New Eyes: Look at the world with curiosity and wonder, rather than judgment.

Practice 2: Stepping in Universe of Possibilities: Giving and Receiving: Embrace the power of giving without expectation and receiving with gratitude.

Practice 3: Giving an A: Choosing Again and Again: Recognize that you have the power to choose your perspective and actions.

Practice 4: Being a Contributor : Listening from the Inside Out: Listen to others with empathy and understanding, connecting deeply.

Practice 5: Leading from Any chair, the Inside Out: Lead with inspiration and authenticity, empowering others.

Practice 6: Rule No. 6: Creating a World of Possibilities: Imagine and create a future filled with hope and opportunity.

Practice 7: The Way things are : Embracing the Paradox: Recognize that life is full of contradictions and embrace the beauty of duality.

Practice 8: Giving Way to Passion : Playing at the Edge of Knowing: Step outside of your comfort zone and explore new possibilities.

Practice 9: Lightening the Spark : Telling Stories: Shape your reality through the stories you tell yourself and others.

Practice 10: Being the Board : Embracing the Whole: Recognize the interconnectedness of all things and embrace a holistic perspective.

Practice 11: Create Framework for Possibilities: Living in the Mystery: Embrace the unknown and find joy in the mystery of life.

Practice 12: Telling the We Story: Loving the World: Cultivate a deep love and appreciation for the world and all its inhabitants.

🎁 Top 3 Takeaways for Fostering Innovation:

🌟 Practice Giving an “A”: This approach encourages seeing the potential in others and creating a supportive environment where everyone can contribute. It shifts focus from measurement and judgment to possibility, fostering a culture of innovation.

💡 Embrace Mistakes as Opportunities: Recognizing that mistakes can be part of the creative process allows for a more open and explorative mindset. By including mistakes in our definition of performance, we can glide through challenges and enhance our innovative capabilities.

🤝 Engage in the “WE” Practice: Shift from a focus on individual success to collective achievement. By telling the “WE story,” listening for emerging possibilities, and asking what is best for the group, we generate a collaborative spirit that sparks new ideas and solutions.

Feedback, Art of listening 👂

“If someone chooses to share feedback, listen to understand the person, not the work. People will tell you more about themselves than about the art when giving feedback. We each see a unique world.”
–  Rick Rubin

The quote by one of the #goodread I had in past, “The Creative Act : a Way of being”, Rick Rubin emphasizes the importance of empathy and understanding in the feedback process. When someone offers feedback, it’s easy to focus solely on the work at hand—be it a piece of art, music, or writing. However, Rubin suggests that the real value lies in understanding the individual behind the feedback. Each person’s perspective is shaped by their personal experiences, emotions, and beliefs, which means they reveal more about themselves than the work itself when sharing their thoughts.

Me and Listening 🦻

Many years ago, as part of internal assessment I have been rated 3/5 on listening skills, its a feedback, which I took with a shock. Till that point I was under impression that I know what “Listening” means, however, nodding my head, paraphrasing what some one just told me, mirroring body language is not what actual ‘Listening’ means. It means “I’m trying to listening, and proving he same”. This is not the intent. Intent is to know the other party better. This is how I started on journey of knowing me better before I learn to know other better. In this process I came across many deep understanding on this subject.

crop faceless female counselor talking to client
Photo by Alex Green on Pexels.com

By listening with the intent to understand the person, rather than just evaluating their critique, we open ourselves up to a deeper connection and insight into different viewpoints. This approach not only enriches our own understanding but can also foster a more supportive and collaborative environment. It encourages constructive dialogue and promotes artistic growth, as individuals feel valued and heard. Ultimately, recognizing that everyone perceives the world uniquely allows for a more inclusive and reflective creative process.

Feedback and Listening … 👂

You can’t step into the same stream twice because it’s always moving. Everything is changing.

After finishing a project or activity, it’s helpful to get feedback from others. This can give us valuable insights and help us improve. For example, a 360-degree feedback after one year in a job is a good way to check how we’re doing and can make our journey more successful. The key is how we handle that feedback. The goal isn’t just to get comments or opinions from others. This is your work, and your feelings about it matter most. The aim is for you to see your work in a new light. Sometimes, a comment will really connect with you and reveal areas for growth. Other times, a negative remark may upset you, leading to a defensive reaction or doubt in your work. In such cases, it’s helpful to take a break, clear your mind, and come back with a fresh perspective. Criticism lets us look at our work from a different angle. We can choose to agree or stick to our original ideas.

How to listen thou self? 💁

Look around you: there are so many remarkable accomplishments to appreciate. Each of these is humanity being true to itself, as a hummingbird is true to itself by building a nest, a mango trees by bearing fruit, and a nimbus cloud by producing rain. We look for something new, and we find the newness. The effort for ‘look for something new’ itself brings the mind to ‘listening’ mode. When we intently look for something new, we hear better, we see better, we not only see the obvious, but we also see the reason behind the obvious. The fruit bearing tree is not there on his own, some one, some how planted it for some reason, and now the fruits are for us to enjoy! It’s a true rabbit hole to go into!

This is how we listen to self, In process improve the listening skill. The gift of awareness allows us to notice what’s going on around and inside ourselves in the present moment. And to do so without attachment or involvement. We may observe bodily sensations, passing thoughts and feelings, sounds or visual cues, smells and tastes. And this is the moment where we are really actively listening to the person.

Fall in love with the person. ❤️

To listen to someone effectively, you need to fall in love with him/her! 💕 Really!

While reading the book “Unsold Mindset,” I discovered an interesting idea about connections. It’s not just about romantic love; it’s about the meaningful friendships that arise from truly caring about someone. We’ve all felt that spark when talking to a stranger—maybe while sitting next to them on a flight or in line at the store. These moments can feel almost magical, especially when the person inspires us. As we share more of these small connections with others, whether they are clients or casual acquaintances, our trust and interest in them grow, leading to deeper understanding and compassion. Such perspective brings the mindset of making the conversation more effective and actionable more impactful

Summary 🔖

Listening is an ongoing process. I never came across someone yet, who has really ‘listens to me’ to my expectations , this could be due to my high expectations and confusion with ‘Thought reading’ expectations.

Nevertheless, I came across many successful leaders, who has shown admiringly well Listening Skills, and which shows very positive and high co-relation of listening skills with a successful leader. Leaders with these skills has not only impacted their own life by climbing the ladder of success , but also impacted the community at large, making difference to their lives and creating the lasting impact.

I’ll keep exploring the topic, and keep learning to be better at skill, and my wife will be the litmus test, nevertheless, its encouraging to be part of this journey!

From Change to Clarity: My 2023 Reading Journey

As 2023 draws to a close, I can’t help but reflect on the incredible journey this year has been—a tapestry woven with challenges, opportunities, and, above all, the profound impact of the books that accompanied me through it all.

In the realm of managing change, “The Leader’s Handbook,” “Amazon Unbound,” “Catalyst,” “The Upside of Uncertainty,” and “The Coaching Habit” stood out as guiding lights. Each page turned felt like a step toward mastering the art of navigating uncertainty and embracing change.

In the pursuit of personal and professional excellence, I found solace in “Build,” courage in “Skin in the Game,” clarity in “Clarity,” emotional mastery in “Master Your Emotions,” and a guide to staying focused in an ever-distracting world with “Indistractable.” Also “The First 90 days” helped me navigate my professional change!.

To stay ahead of the curve and catch the elusive trends, “How Data Happened,” “Power of Prediction,” and “Game Theory” became my trusty companions, offering insights that proved invaluable in both my personal and professional spheres.

The motivational force of “The Code Breaker,” “Educated,” “Lesson in Chemistry,” “Katha,” and “The Lego Story” fueled my spirit, reminding me that the human experience is a rich tapestry of stories waiting to be explored.

And in the realm of fiction, “Contact” and “Station Eleven” etched themselves into my all-time favorites, transporting me to worlds that stretched the boundaries of imagination.

As I bid farewell to 2023, I eagerly anticipate the surprises and discoveries that 2024 holds. May this new year be filled with joy, growth, and a plethora of captivating reads. Wishing you all a delightful holiday season, a Happy New Year, and countless adventures within the pages of wonderful books! 📚✨

Ethics 101 : Beginner’s guide in Ethics

“Ethics 101: From Altruism and Utilitarianism to Bioethics and Political Ethics, an Exploration of the Concepts of Right and Wrong” by Brian Boone is a beginner-friendly guide that explores various ethical theories and concepts. The book covers a range of ethical perspectives, from historical theories like utilitarianism and deontology to contemporary issues in bioethics and political ethics. Boone provides a concise overview of each concept, breaking down complex ideas into easily understandable terms. The book is designed to introduce readers to the fundamental principles of ethics, making it accessible to those who may be new to the subject. It serves as a primer for individuals interested in understanding different ethical frameworks and their applications in various aspects of life

Major topics covered

  1. Introduction to Ethics: Basic definitions and the importance of ethical considerations.
  2. Historical Ethical Theories:
    • Utilitarianism: The idea that actions should maximize overall happiness or utility.
    • Deontology: Emphasizing the importance of following moral rules and duties.
  3. Virtue Ethics: Exploring the development of good character traits as the foundation for ethical behaviour.
  4. Applied Ethics:
    • Bioethics: Ethical considerations in the field of biology and medicine.
    • Environmental Ethics: Ethics related to the environment and our impact on it.
    • Business Ethics: Moral considerations in the business world.
  5. Political Ethics: Examining ethical principles in the context of politics and governance.
  6. Social Justice: Addressing issues of fairness and justice in society.
  7. Metaethics: Exploring the nature of ethics, including questions about objectivity and subjectivity.
  8. Religious Ethics: Considering how various religious traditions approach ethical questions.
  9. Current Ethical Issues: Examining contemporary ethical challenges and debates.

What do I like in this book most?

The book is designed to be a primer, providing a concise introduction to key ethical concepts without overwhelming me with unnecessary details. It explores how ethical theories can be applied to real-life situations, making it relevant to everyday decision-making. The book also covers a wide range of topics within ethics, from historical theories to contemporary issues.

Summary:

I made small timelines on various philosophers and ethicists which are mentioned in this book.

This book also recognizes a potential avenue for my further exploration. The primary discussion and renowned theories originate from the Western perspective. Even though the Eastern tradition has a longer history of engaging in ethical discourse, particularly from the perspective of virtues, it is an area that I find intriguing and may delve into as my next in-depth study.

A 200+ page, easy read book is a good leisure read, but be prepared to learn new insights on Ethics.

Have a good read!

Join my reading challenge Sumit’s 2023 reading challenge | Goodreads

Book Review : The Upside of Uncertainty

The Upside of Uncertainty: A Guide to Finding Possibility in the Unknown, The book is about framing uncertainty as a possibility. This involves shifting the mindset to see uncertainty as a potential source of positive outcomes and personal growth. Great Read!

The book backs up its strategies based on research from psychology, neuroscience, and behavioural economics. The book is not a guide to “success”, but more of “questioning” the anxiety of the uncertainty.

The book is divided in three parts,

  • Part 1: Understanding Uncertainty: This section explores the nature of uncertainty and how it affects us. The authors discuss the different types of uncertainty, the brain’s response to uncertainty, and the psychological biases that can lead us to make poor decisions in uncertain situations.
  • Part 2: Thriving in Uncertainty: This section provides tools and strategies for navigating uncertainty effectively. The authors discuss how to develop a healthy relationship with uncertainty, increase your possibility quotient, and build resilience in the face of unexpected challenges.
  • Part 3: Living in Possibility: This section explores the benefits of living in a world of uncertainty. The authors discuss how uncertainty can lead to more creativity, innovation, and connection.

Key strategies listed in the book:

  1. Embrace change: Accept that uncertainty often accompanies change, and change can lead to personal and professional growth. Embrace change as an opportunity to learn and adapt.
  2. Focus on what you can control: While you can’t control all aspects of uncertainty, concentrate on the factors you can influence and take actions that are within your control.
  3. Develop a growth mindset: Cultivate a mindset that sees challenges and uncertainty as opportunities for learning and improvement. Embrace failures as valuable lessons.
  4. Set clear goals: Define your objectives and aspirations, even in uncertain situations. Having clear goals can provide a sense of direction and purpose.
  5. Experiment and innovate: Use uncertainty as a chance to experiment, try new things, and innovate. This can lead to discoveries and breakthroughs.
  6. Seek diverse perspectives: Engage with people who have different viewpoints and experiences to gain new insights and ideas when facing uncertainty.
  7. Build resilience: Strengthen your ability to bounce back from setbacks and adapt to changing circumstances. Resilience can help you thrive in uncertain situations.
  8. Practice mindfulness: Mindfulness techniques can help you stay grounded in the present moment and reduce anxiety related to uncertainty.
  9. Maintain a positive attitude: Cultivate optimism and focus on the potential positive outcomes that uncertainty can bring. A positive attitude can be a powerful asset.
  10. Continuously learn and grow: View uncertainty as an ongoing opportunity for personal and professional development. Keep acquiring new skills and knowledge to stay adaptable.

By reframing uncertainty in this way, you can turn it into a catalyst for growth and possibility, rather than a source of anxiety and fear.

The key takeaways from this book are :

  • Uncertainty is inevitable. It is a part of life.
  • Uncertainty is not something to be feared, but rather embraced.
  • Uncertainty can lead to innovation, creativity, and personal growth.
  • There are tools and strategies that can help us navigate uncertainty effectively.
  • Living in a world of uncertainty can lead to a more fulfilling and impactful life.

Join my reading challenge Sumit’s 2023 reading challenge | Goodreads

Book Review : Power & Prediction

Summary

“Power and Prediction” discusses the potential of artificial intelligence (AI) to transform decision-making through improved prediction. The authors argue that AI can change the balance between rules and decisions, and that better predictions can give businesses a competitive advantage. However, the adoption of AI requires a systems mindset, as the entire system of decision-making and its processes may need to adjust. The authors also explore the potential for AI to change who holds power, as well as the challenges in building judgment associated with AI prediction.

Key Questions answered in this book

  1. How does AI prediction change the traditional decision-making process?
    AI prediction changes the traditional decision-making process by reducing the cost and increasing the accuracy of prediction, which is a key input for any decision. Decision-making can be broken down into three components:
    1. data,
    2. prediction, and
    3. judgment.
    Data is the raw information that is available for the decision, prediction is the process of using data to forecast what will happen under different scenarios, and judgment is the process of determining the value or utility of different outcomes.
    Traditionally, prediction was expensive and inaccurate, so humans relied more on their intuition and heuristics to make decisions. However, with the advent of AI, prediction becomes cheap and precise, so humans can use more data and scenarios to make better-informed decisions. AI also enables new types of decisions that were not possible before, such as personalized recommendations, dynamic pricing, and real-time optimization.
    However, AI does not replace human judgment, which is still needed to evaluate the predictions and choose the best course of action. Human judgment also involves ethical, moral, and social considerations that AI cannot capture. Therefore, the optimal decision-making process in the age of AI is a combination of human and machine intelligence, where humans delegate prediction tasks to AI and focus on judgment tasks that require creativity, empathy, and wisdom.
  2. What are some potential benefits and drawbacks of decoupling prediction and judgment through AI adoption?
    • Benefits:
      • AI can improve the accuracy and efficiency of prediction tasks, which are essential for decision-making in various domains.
      • AI can enable new types of decisions that were not possible before, such as personalized recommendations, dynamic pricing, and real-time optimization.
      • AI can reduce the cognitive load and bias of human decision-makers, who can focus on judgment tasks that require creativity, empathy, and wisdom.
      • AI can enhance the value of human judgment, which is needed to evaluate the predictions and choose the best course of action based on ethical, moral, and social considerations.
    • Drawbacks:
      • AI can increase the complexity and uncertainty of decision-making environments, which may require more data and judgment than available or feasible.
      • AI can create new challenges and risks for data quality, security, and privacy, which may affect the reliability and validity of predictions.
      • AI can shift the power and profits among decision-makers, intermediaries, and stakeholders, which may create conflicts and inequalities.
      • AI can undermine the accountability and transparency of decision-making processes, which may erode trust and legitimacy.
  3. How can AI reduce bias and change power dynamics in organizations?
    • AI can reduce bias by identifying and correcting the human biases that affect decision-making, such as affinity bias, confirmation bias, attribution bias, and the halo effect. AI can also help to diversify the data sources and algorithms that are used to generate predictions, and to monitor and report the potential issues and impacts of AI applications.
    • AI can change power dynamics by enabling new types of decisions that were not possible before, such as personalized recommendations, dynamic pricing, and real-time optimization. AI can also shift the power and profits among decision-makers, intermediaries, and stakeholders, by creating new value propositions, business models, and competitive advantages.

Key Focus

  • AI is a prediction technology that enhances decision-making by reducing uncertainty and increasing accuracy
  • AI can transform industries by enabling new decisions, redesigning systems, and shifting power and profits.
  • AI poses challenges and opportunities for innovation, regulation, ethics, and geopolitics
  • A framework for understanding the economics of AI and its implications for the future of work, competition, and society.
  • Helps to understand about the potential and pitfalls of AI, and how to leverage or protect their position in the coming AI disruptions

Key highlights

  • We have entered a unique moment in history—The Between Times—after witnessing the power of this technology and before its widespread.
  • Google CEO Sundar Pichai said that “AI is probably the most important thing humanity has ever worked on. I think of it as something more profound than electricity.” Google has already seen a benefit from AI. Many companies haven’t. A 2020 study by MIT’s Sloan Management Review and BCG, a global consultancy, found that just 11 percent of organizations reported significant financial benefits from AI.This wasn’t for lack of trying. Fifty-nine percent said they had an AI strategy. Fifty-seven percent had deployed or piloted AI solutions.
  • AI Soluton Types
    • AI POINT SOLUTION: A prediction is valuable as a point solution if it improves an existing decision and that decision can be made independently.
    • AI APPLICATION SOLUTION: A prediction is valuable as an application solution if it enables a new decision or changes how a decision is made and that decision can be made independently.
    • AI SYSTEM SOLUTION: A prediction is valuable as a system solution if it improves existing decisions or enables new decisions, but only if changes to how other decisions are made are implemented.
  • The biggest increase in the adoption of AI is, if history is any guide, going to come from changes in systems. But such change will also be disruptive. By disruptive, we mean that it changes the roles of many people and companies within industries and, alongside those changes, causes shifts in power. That is, there are likely to be economic winners and losers, especially if system change occurs relatively quickly.
  • System solutions are typically harder to implement than point solutions or application solutions because the AI-enhanced decision impacts other decisions in the system, However, in many cases, system solutions are likely to generate the greatest overall return to investments in AI
  • When people think about AI, they think about the intelligent machines littered throughout popular culture. They think of helpful robots such as R2-D2 or WALL-E. They think of brilliant teammates such as Data from Star Trek or J.A.R.V.I.S. from Iron Man. They also think of those that turned rogue like HAL 9000 from 2001 or Ultron from The Avengers. Whatever their quirks or intentions, these representations of AI have one thing in common: no one disputes that they can think, reason, and have agency, just as we do.

Book Review: “Skin in the Game” by Nassim Nicholas Taleb and “Basic Economics” by Thomas Sowell

I read somewhere that the technology keeps on changing, but the economics do not. However, I recently encountered two books with thought-provoking and belief-conflicting theories. Both Nassim (writer of the famous book Black Swan & Antifragile) and Thomas Sowell (Known capitalistic economist) are subject-matter expert, and both are working in economies of scales.

The challenge was for me to read these books together, in order to gain a greater perspective on risk management and how economies work. The books are on different topics, but the genre is the same… how the environment manages/appreciates/supports risks.

Nassim’s writing is complex, and sometimes you may feel highly biased, but don’t fall for it, what he does is ask questions, and make you dwell deeper in to conflict, as there you may realize the fundamentals. Sowell is straightforward, easy to read, and I can see bias, but the examples given and logic explained make me conflict with my belief system, which gives me better insights on the subject.

I’m unable to make a mind map this time around; however, the following summary will give you some insights.

Both “Skin in the Game” by Nassim Nicholas Taleb and “Basic Economics” by Thomas Sowell are well-regarded books, but they approach the subject from different angles and with different emphases. Here are some potential points of conflict or difference between the two:

1. Approach to Risk and Uncertainty:

• Taleb: In “Skin in the Game,” Taleb stresses the importance of personal risk in decision-making. He argues that systems are more stable and ethical when individuals have a personal stake in the outcomes of their actions. Taleb is also known for his focus on the impact of highly improbable events (“Black Swans”) and how they can disrupt systems.

• Sowell: “Basic Economics” is more of a foundational overview of economic principles. While it touches on risk in terms of costs and benefits, it doesn’t delve deeply into the philosophical or ethical implications of risk in the way Taleb does.

2. Role of Experts:

• Taleb: Taleb is often critical of experts, especially when they don’t have “skin in the game.” He believes many experts can make predictions or decisions without facing the consequences of being wrong.

• Sowell: While Sowell also criticizes some experts, especially when discussing the potential pitfalls of central planning, his approach in “Basic Economics” is more to explain economic principles clearly rather than to critique the role of experts in decision-making.

3. Government Intervention:

• Taleb: Taleb doesn’t necessarily oppose government intervention, but is sceptical of interventions by individuals or entities that don’t bear the risks of their actions.

• Sowell: In “Basic Economics,” Sowell often points out the unintended consequences of government interventions in the market. He leans towards a free-market perspective, emphasizing that many government interventions can lead to inefficiencies or distortions in the market.

4. Nature of Economics:

• Taleb: Taleb’s works, including “Skin in the Game,” tend to be more philosophical and touch upon a wide range of subjects, not just economics. He typically integrates ideas from probability, ethics, and epistemology.

• Sowell: “Basic Economics” is more focused. It’s an introductory text that lays out the foundational principles of economics in a straightforward manner.

5. Writing Style:

• Taleb: Taleb’s writing can be polemical and is frequently interlaced with anecdotes, historical examples, and philosophical musings.

• Sowell: Sowell’s writing in “Basic Economics” is clear, direct, and educational, aiming to explain economic concepts simply.

Both Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Thomas Sowell have expressed political viewpoints, albeit from different angles and frameworks. Here’s a brief summary of their political stances based on their writings and public statements:

1. Thomas Sowell

— Free Market Capitalism: Sowell is a strong proponent of free market capitalism. In “Basic Economics” and other works, he argues that market mechanisms are the most efficient way to allocate resources and that many problems arise from government interventions.

—Conservatism: Sowell is often identified with conservative viewpoints, especially in the American context. He has critiqued various progressive policies, especially those that, in his view, don’t consider the economic consequences.

— Race and Culture: In books like “Race and Culture,” “Black Rednecks and White Liberals,” and “Intellectuals and Race,” Sowell argues against a victimhood narrative and suggests that cultural factors play a significant role in the success or challenges of different groups.

2. Nassim Nicholas Taleb:

— Decentralization: One of Taleb’s recurrent themes is the idea that smaller, decentralized systems are more robust and antifragile. He regularly critiques large-scale top-down interventions and bureaucracies.

— Scepticism of Experts: As mentioned earlier, Taleb is sceptical of experts who don’t bear the consequences of their decisions, which has political implications in terms of policymaking and governance.

— Ethical Framework: Taleb’s “skin in the game” concept is as much an ethical principle as it is a practical one. He believes that decision-makers should bear the risks of their decisions, leading to more ethical and robust systems.

—Political Classification: Taleb has resisted being easily classified under traditional political labels. He often critiques both left and right viewpoints, focusing instead on principles like antifragility and skin in the game.

While both authors might overlap in their scepticism of certain types of top-down interventions, their reasons and frameworks differ. Sowell’s critiques frequently come from an economic efficiency and individual freedom perspective, while Taleb’s come from a risk, ethics, and systemic robustness viewpoint.

In “Skin in the Game” by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the concept of asymmetry plays a central role. Taleb uses several examples and situations to illustrate the idea that when there’s a misalignment of risks and rewards, or when one party bears more risks than the other, it can lead to systemic problems. Here are some examples of asymmetries discussed in the book:

1. Bankers and Bailouts: One of the most cited examples is the 2008 financial crisis. Bankers had incentives to take large risks because they reaped the rewards when things went well but faced limited consequences when things went wrong, as many banks were bailed out. This is an asymmetry because the risks were effectively transferred to taxpayers.

2. Consultants and Decision-making: Taleb talks about consultants giving advice. If the advice works, they get paid and hailed, but if it goes wrong, it’s the company that suffers. The consultant doesn’t have “skin in the game.”

3. Bureaucrats and Wars: The decision-makers who opt for war might not have personal risks involved (they or their loved ones are not on the frontline). This disconnect can lead to poor decision-making because those making the decisions aren’t bearing the full consequences.

4. Centralization: Larger, centralized entities making decisions for a diverse range of smaller entities can lead to asymmetries. Decisions made centrally might not consider local nuances, and if those decisions are detrimental, it’s the local entities that bear the brunt.

5. Minority Rule: Taleb describes how a small, intransigent minority can dictate the preferences of a more flexible majority. For instance, if a small percentage of the population has a specific dietary restriction and is inflexible about it, food producers might find it easier to cater to that restriction universally, making the minority’s preference the de facto standard.

6. The Bob Rubin Trade: Taleb often cites the example of Robert Rubin, a former U.S. Treasury Secretary and Citigroup executive. Rubin received large bonuses when the risky investments he endorsed did well, but when those same investments later resulted in significant losses, he didn’t face corresponding personal financial consequences.

These examples underscore the central theme of the book: that it’s vital for decision-makers to have “skin in the game” to ensure that risks and rewards are aligned, leading to more ethical, robust, and effective systems.

Have a nice good read

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Book Review : Clarity

The Book

The #goodreads , Clarity by Jamie Smart, explores the importance of clarity in achieving success and well-being in life. It explains how understanding innate thinking leads to clarity, intuition, and resilience, guiding individuals through uncertainty and change. The book helps catch an understanding that is aligned with how our mind and life work, resulting in symptoms of increasing clarity, resilience, and peace of mind. The author shares reflections and resources to deepen readers’ understanding of innate thinking and clarify their perception of life’s challenges.

Key Concepts

The key concept is looking from inside out than outside in. Not setting goals to make feel need to achieve something to move forward, to get the happiness. The inside out thinking help us to understand from where the feeling of ‘need’ or ‘anxiety’ is coming, and distinguish between what really matters.

Principle Thought, Mind and Consciousness

The book focuses of three principles as 1. Thought (Understand its origin, accept all feelings are result of mere thoughts and not situation), 2. Consciousness (Bring the awareness of surrounding, being aware of the surrounding help avoid blaming the situation, and get focused on Thoughts ) and 3. Mind (Mind is power source behind life)

4T Principle

While doing distinction between Information vs Implementation, I liked the key concept of 4T Principle.
Typically, we fall pray to get more insights and information before taking any decision, this is mainly due to fear of failure, again this is outside in thinking, to see from inside, its important to focus on Implementation. The implementation will only occur if we get more clarity. the clarity will come when we follow the 4Ts.

  • Taking responsibility,
  • Taking decisions,
  • Taking risks and
  • Taking action.
    These can often bring up superstitious thinking. When you can see through the mirage of that thinking, implementation is relatively straightforward. When you can’t see through it, more information can look like an attractive proposition.

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